Tuesday, 5 April 2011

Welsh Assembly Elections - The candidates for Ynys Môn

Ieuan Wyn Jones, Plaid Cymru
Paul Williams, Conservatives
Joe Lock, Labour
Rhys Taylor, Liberal Democrats.

The interesting question this time is what will happen to Peter Rogers votes of the 2007 Welsh Assembly Election.

Many Anglesey Conservatives believe that had Peter Rogers not stood in 2007 that their candidate would have been much closer to Ieuan Wyn Jones.

A belief recently repeated by the Paul Williams, the welsh speaking, Anglesey born Conservative candidate. The argument goes if you add the 6,261 votes for Peter Rogers with the 3,480 for the then Conservative candidate and 912 for UKIP you’d get 10,574 votes.

I suspect though that Peter Rogers may have had cross party appeal, and some tactical voting by Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters.

An alternative explanation therefore for the votes Peter Rogers gained could have been a combination of votes (difference between 2007 and 2003), the - 1,343 Labour votes, 3,717 Conservative votes (some of which may have gone to UKIP), 1,147 Liberal Democrats. In total 6207.

Maybe we need to consider the 2003 results - PC 37%, L 24%, C 29% and a need for a 8% swing for the Conservatives to gain the seat, which is only 2,017 votes.

And then what will happen to the Liberal Democrats votes?

All in all rather to close to call - although if Plaid Cymru can motivate their supporters to vote, my thoughts are a Plaid Cymru hold with a reduced majority, with Paul Williams a close second.

Note: We should remember that in 1999 Ieuan Wyn Jones had 53% of the vote, and in 2007 he had 40% of the vote, which was 18% higher than the ITV YouGov Poll of the time.


Prometheuswrites said...

It's going to be a very interesting two horse race.

Key swing factors may be where the 'disillusion' factor is greater.

With the ConDem government cuts going against the Tories and the Local Authority failure going against the current incumbent.

Unknown said...

It was the Tories who failed the council. A large number never declare their party membership, shame.

Photon said...

I'm biased, but an important factor beyond the currently-unknown level of disillusionment amongst Lib. Dem. voters is the identity of the Labour and Lib. Dem. candidates: nobody has ever heard of them before and they don't seem to be making much of an effort, knowing any effort they do make is inevitably going to be in vain.

On Anglesey, hostory tells us we don't generally vote for people who parachute in and try to be local for a month or two.