Meanwhile in 2012 the USA sizzled in the heat...

So we here in the UK had a wet and grey 2012,  meanwhile over in the USA it was a bit warmer.

According to ClimateWatch Magazine:

'By a wide margin, 2012 was the United States’ warmest year on record

According to the latest statistics from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature for the contiguous United States for 2012 was 55.3° Fahrenheit, which was 3.2° Fahrenheit above the twentieth-century average and 1.0° Fahrenheit above the previous record from 1998. The year consisted of the fourth-warmest winter, a record-warm spring, the second-warmest summer, and a warmer-than-average autumn.The map above shows where the 2012 temperatures were different from the 1981–2010 average. Shades of red indicate temperatures up to 8° Fahrenheit warmer than average, and shades of blue indicate temperatures up to 8° Fahrenheit cooler than average—the darker the color, the larger the difference from average temperature.'

And the New York Times in a report on Tuesday 8 January says:  It’s Official: 2012 Was Hottest Year Ever in U.S.:

'......Last year’s weather in the United States began with an unusually warm winter, with relatively little snow across much of the country, followed by a March that was so hot that trees burst into bloom and swimming pools opened early. The soil dried out in the March heat, helping to set the stage for a drought that peaked during the warmest July on record.

The drought engulfed 61 percent of the nation, killed corn and soybean crops and sent prices spiraling. It was comparable to a severe drought in the 1950s, Mr. Crouch said, but not quite as severe as the Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which was exacerbated by poor farming practices that allowed topsoil to blow away.

In addition to being the warmest year since extensive records for the contiguous United States became available in 1895, last year turned out to be the second worst on a measure called the Climate Extremes Index, surpassed only by 1998.

Experts are still counting, but so far 11 disasters in 2012 have exceeded a threshold of $1 billion in damages, including several tornado outbreaks; Hurricane Isaac, which hit the Gulf Coast in August; and, late in the year, Hurricane Sandy, which caused damage likely to exceed $60 billion in nearly half the states, primarily in the mid-Atlantic region......'

Wet and cold and a chance of snow

The weather next week due to a high pressure dominating above Europe will be relatively cold.  However other than that it gets a bit complicated, as there is a battle between this cold air and the warm air in the Atlantic, as shown above.

What weather forecasters know is over the next few days a number of slow moving fronts will approach from the west, bringing with them on the leading edge a chance of snow. However, as to when the rain turns to snow and back to rain is not certain at the moment.

There is a chance of snow on the island, especially on higher ground, but more importantly should you have a journey over the bridge, say to South Wales, be prepared for snow.

For the island it looks like rain tomorrow, possibly snow or hail showers, clearing Tuesday with more showers, again possibly wintry, towards the end of the week.

One thing for certain it's going to be cold.

A good tip is to look at the moon if it has a blue halo then there is a chance of snow, but if the halo is yellow or brown in colour then its most likely to be rain.

Data Source: Weather Online

The weather and the jet stream.

Figure 1

The winter weather to date has been rather warm, if wet and windy. A major reason behind this has been the jet stream, which for most of December has been above us, bringing warmer air in from the Atlantic. A good explanation as to how the jet stream affects UK weather can be found in the netweather.tv - tutorial

You can see a predicted model of the jets stream from the Global Forecasting System at Weatheronline.

Figure 1 above shows the jet stream as predicted for new years eve at 18:00 hours GMT.  As you can see the jet stream is moving in a general South to North direction as it passes the UK, which will bring warmer weather as can be seen in figure 2 below:

Figure 2

Therefore for Ynys Môn weather on new years eve is likely to cloudy but mostly dry with a mild temperature (up to 11 Celsius) but may feel colder in a brisk wind (25-30 mph). An approaching cold front from Ireland may bring rain sometime after 9 pm,  with  light rain showers for most of new years day.

Base data from Weatheronline and Met Office for Surface Pressure Charts

The Observer's Book of Weather

With more snow forecast for Wednesday, the following is an extract from “The Observer’s Book of Weather’ by Mr Lester F.R Met. Soc. Published in 1955.

“In the British Isles snow is more frequent at the latter part of winter and early spring, and this is because there is a greater tendency for easterly winds from the Contingent to bring in the coldest weather around February and March.

Severe snow-storms can often be very local. We have had examples in southern England, with blizzards depositing a foot or more in snow in, say, one part of Kent, and places a few miles away without any snow at all. The explanation for this is that the heaviest falls occur along the continental side of a 'warm front', which in this country, of course, is the southeastern side. The snow rapidly decreases in amount on the opposite side of the front.

We often hear it said that it is 'too cold for snow'. Actually, it can never be too cold to snow, but when the temperature falls low in the British Isles it is generally during an anticyclone, or fine weather spell, and with the oncoming depression, the temperature rises…..

….Although snow is associated with Christmas in the northern hemisphere and is a regular feature of Christmas cards and stories, weather statistics prove that snow rarely falls in Christmas week. The Greenwich records show that, over a period of 83 years, snow has fallen on Christmas Day on only six occasions, and on Boxing Day on ten occasions. Only twice has it snowed on Christmas Eve. These figures apply to southern England only, but even in the Midlands and north of England it is more usual to have a 'green' than a 'white' Christmas.”