I see dark clouds on the horizon, the future look pretty bleak for most.

It was an unexpected election result, that many, including me,  hoped we wouldn't get....to poorly paraphrase Monty Python "nobody was expecting a tory majority".  Even if Labour had not melted as rapidly as the ice caps of the North Pole in Scotland, they still would have lost.

And now who knows the horrors the triumphant Tory party will unleash onto the UK. Let's say I'm not optimistic at all, for all of Cameron's talk of one nation politics, we know he only means in reality England.

Boris Johnson it seems was ready when he purchased in advance them water cannons, for he must have had predicted the likely ground swell of anger that would rise even there, when Ian Duncan Smith is released to decimate the welfare state, and we find out where the axe will fall, and where the £12 billion in cuts will come from. When those who can least afford it are hit hardest and those whom don't need it are given a handout.

True, the Conservatives in Wales had their best result for aeons, as they defeated Labour in Gower of all places, and kicked Clegg further by gaining two seats from the Lib Dems. But don't expect this motley crew of Welsh Tories to stand up for Wales when the tories impose policies that favour England at the cost of us Welsh.

Not that I'm saying anyone one of them (the eleven welsh tories) don't have Wales interests at heart - in reality, they will be told where to stand and what to say...period.

I suppose if I was digging around for good news, it would be that maybe Cameron might keep his promise to devolve more power to Wales as he devolves more power to the English regions. Though what are the odds do you think that whilst the devolution of powers will be imposed in England, here in Wales he will want a referendum held first. And the result of a referendum on further welsh assembly powers is not a certainty by any means.

Oh and Nigel Farage wasn't elected, nor UKIP's Welsh leader and son of polish hiring family, Nathan Gill.

Now, and this is important. With the Tories making gains in Wales and UKIP share of the vote rising we need to start worrying about next years Assembly Elections.

Let's think what would happened if the Tories gained power here, that would be goodbye to many many things that we the Welsh feel justly proud of. It would be goodbye free prescriptions, free school  breakfast clubs, and the start of the end of the Welsh NHS as we know it, to name just three.

It would, in my humble opinion, be a disaster to most of us in Wales.  This is why, Plaid Cymru must keep on building on the momentum they got from the General Election and the good standing that it gave Leanne Wood; though not maybe in share of vote, by taking progressive politics in Wales forward, by reaching out to all in Wales, by being the true one nation party of Wales, there to represent the interest of Wales first, second and last as their priority, without having to first gain permission from party headquarters over the border.

And I hope Carwyn Jones, won't do a Miliband and refuse to talk coalition, that all parties that want a progressive Wales, a successful Wales, with social justice and social principles at its heart form an alliance now or soon before we all wake up to being a region of England.

Lastly for now, I am truly concerned as to the UK's future (not in terms of the current union, I've long argued for a UK Federal Republic) but for it's future economic prosperity. For now it's highly likely there will be a referendum on continued membership of the EU, and again the result of that is far from certain.

Most serious commentators be they politicians, academics or business leaders agree it would be a disaster if the UK left the EU. They only hope is that Cameron can pull it off again as he did last week and over the Scottish Referendum, albeit with help from Labour in the later....or hold on, thinking about it, in both cases.

If Brexit happens, it could truly spell the end of the United Kingdom as a union. What many feared with a Labour/SNP coalition, because master strategist Lynton Crosby scared them to think so, they have by voting in the Tories in reality made the prospect of it happening a greater likelihood than ever before.

My thoughts on UKIP and it's 75% proof..

Who are UKIP exactly? - have you ever thought that, not sure, well neither does the popular media it seems. Of course in one sense it doesn't matter, the more support UKIP have the fewer the Conservatives have. And if the Conservatives don't win an overall majority in 2015 then it's unlikely there will be a IN/OUT referendum on the EU. Unless that is I suppose they form an unholy alliance with UKIP. But is that likely Messrs Farage and Cameron not being best of buddies, though Nigel Farage has said he'd deal with the devil if it got them what they wanted.....interesting that....look and listen: You Tube....

So maybe we should be taking a bit more attention of UKIP, and challenge them whenever we can, especially in social media. Because if you challenge them on the actual detail of their grandstanding the weakness of their argument is soon exposed. But not only that it's also fun, my favorite move at the moment is to quote them Churchill, especially his United States of Europe speech. I wait to see if they add him to a growing list of what the right wing see as traitors ranging from David Cameron to the Her Majesty the Queen.

Now as we know UKIP want out of the EU but why? - I wonder what their website says...

ah here it is the THE TRUTH ABOUT THE EU.....wow in capitals letters so it must be true.

Now let's see did you know that "The EU is a fraud on ALL Europeans". OMG a fraud on ALL Europeans that's half a billion people all victims of fraud. Of course "The European Union seemed a good idea in the 1970s" - but hold on I though the EU was founded on 1 November 1993, and in the 1970's it was the Common Market and that Prime Minister Heath took us into the European Economic Community (EEC), and a key argument behind the conspiracy theory is that in 1975 we voted in for the free market and not the EU, I'm confused now.

Let me think - we didn't vote for the EU but we where thinking the EU seemed a good idea in the 1970's, but we didn't vote for it. And "It’s not just Britain that wants out of the EU. Many other Europeans would vote to leave, if given the chance."

Yes there is a long list isn't there, Greenland they left and Greece, well maybe shouldn't have become a member of the Eurozone in the first place, but even they aren't proposing to leave the European Union. And it seems to me there are more countries joining the EU than leaving or talking of leaving, other than the UK.

Hold on what's that UKIP Wales "New German opinion poll shows majority believe euro membership carries more disadvantages than advantages" - yes but we are not in the single currency are we, so that argument is a bit pointless...other than it got the letters eu in it, they being the devils letters seemingly - EUrope BAD - EU BAD - EUrozone BAD.

Let me introduce UKIP Rule Number 1 - Anything that does not agree with you be they polls, elections,statements of fact etc.. are FRAUD, even more impressive if it's FRAUD against ALL Europeans. Your not just fighting for a small right wing minority you've got ALL Europeans to defend. You know and join in - I'd like to teach the world to sing,  in perfect harmony, i'd like to hold it in my arms and keep it company - oh bless... a will no one think of the children moment there.

But how much does this all cost us - "The EU costs Britain £50 million a day."...that's...where's my calculator...that's..£18,250,000,000 or £18 billion....OMG that's a big number - but also a meaninglessness number, the net contribution of the UK to the EU in 2011 was around £7.4 billion or £21 million a day or 0.00304276% of  UK GDP.

UKIP Rule Number 2 - Numbers when quoted should be big, even if meaningless...also keep in mind Dr.Evil. principle.

Did you realise "The EU means lower wages....because "Open borders have brought cheap labour, lower wages and more unemployment to Britain.

True studies have shown that for low paid jobs - mostly part time seasonal jobs, fruit picking etc.. immigrants do lower wages a little, but they are for jobs that most UK workers wont do 'cause they get more on benefits   and also don't we have the minimum wage. But other than that they actually increase wages, so on balance we are better off. And of course they get paid such a low wage because they are exploited, as they have fewer rights. But we do like our Asparagus don't we, as long as we don't think how they where picked.

Next shock horror open borders means increased crime, ah the classic evil monkey in the cupboard for you there. As we all know crime rates in the UK are falling.

UKIP Rule Number 3 - Blame all problems on immigrants the EU and large multinational corporations.

And now for a classic - the We have no control over immigration

Did you know fact - "almost 500 million EU citizens are entitled to work, live and claim benefits in the UK" OMG when do they arrive, have you a spare room 'cause apparently someone said that all of the EU should move to the UK - Rule 2 in action there - a classic use of a big number.

But there's more - "Britain’s borders are now effectively North Africa, Russia and Turkey; not the White Cliffs of Dover."

Rule Number 4 - Try and link any message with a nostalgic link to the WAR - you know the one and only WAR, so our borders stop at the White Cliffs of Dover, so people of Gibraltar on your bikes.

Do remember "The 1975 referendum was a trick" though not a fraud apparently. And now the EU is making over 70% of our laws - this seems to be pick a number and repeat it often gambit, I've found a claim that in 2001 the Bow Group said that 55% of UK legislation was originated by the EU, and then apparently the German Government calculated in 2005 that about 70% of its laws originated from the European Union. Or in 2009 Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan mentioned 84%; UKIP leader Nigel Farrage said it was 75%, the figure most often mentioned by anti-EU types (such as French National Front leader Jean Marie Le Pen or the Libertas Party) is that 80% of our laws come from the EU, while in a speech elsewhere last week, Conservative leader David Cameron said that “Almost half of all the regulations affecting our businesses come from the EU”.

Confused, well don't be they are all wrong, the website Nosemonkey -   What percentage of laws come from the EU? explains why.

And the UKIP 70-75% claim - does not apply to the percentage of laws in individual member states that stem from the EU, but the percentage of laws that stem from the EU that the European Parliament has a say in. That’s an entirely different kettle of fish – and so the 75% figure can safely be dismissed as based on a (deliberate?) misunderstanding.

Now as we know  the EU is evil (it has the letters EU)  and British MPs have little say on many issues. Unelected Brussels Commissioners have much more power than our own MPs. And of the 27 EU Commissioners, at least eight are ex-Communists.

OMG OMG - unelected Commissioners have more powers than our MPs .....not going to mention MEP's then I see, not going to mention the job Nigel Farage does, 'cause they seem to be voting on something over there in the EU...not going to mention this year EU parliament session....the 3874 votes by democratically elected MEP's of which Nigel voted in 50.28% of them....no...ok...I take it the UKIP MEP's do something....don't they?

What's that....oh yeah at least eight are ex-Communists and you know what that means SOCIALISM, not only is the EU EVIL but its run by SOCIALISTS - run for the hills people Stalin is taking over, he tricked us all, he's not dead he's coming back. After all Russia need do is just cross our border that we have LOST CONTROL OF (it's next to Russia remember) and we will all be COMMUNISTS. And what of the WHITE CLIFFS OF DOVER then...people or should that be COMRADES ...did you know there are 142 million Russian and it's a gateway to Asia and there are 4 billion of them, they could take over the EU, for every one of us there are 64 of them, think what would happen if they came over here to work.....OMG..OMG......

More to follow.... including "which with other democratic, freedom loving organisations, [...], across Europe." UKIP is working with.

UPDATE: In a rather pathetic letter to the Daily Post on Thursday 31/1/13 John Bell - Con. NW Chair said and I quote  - "In addition, if the EU is to survive as a prosperous trading entity with the rest of  the world, it has to ditch its outdated, central-controlled, highly regulated, bureaucratic, undemocratic one might say, socialist model".  Yes SOCIALISTS.......OMG OMG run for the hills people....

And there was me thinking that the banking collapse of 2008 had something to do with failure in the capitalist model.

The Common Market and the EU

Let me start by saying that I think we should remain a strong part of Europe, and that Europe is also stronger if the UK remains part of the European family.

In a 'landmark' speech; which I urge you all to read, the 'State of the Union' address of 1941 President Roosevelt said inter alia:

..there is nothing mysterious about the foundations of a healthy and strong democracy. The basic things expected by our people of their political and economic system are simple: 

They are:

Equality of opportunity for youth and for others

Jobs for those who can work

Security for those who need it.

The ending of special privileges for the few.

The preservation of civil liberties for all.

The enjoyment of the fruits of scientific progress in a wider and constantly rising standard of living....

He also set out the four essential human freedoms:

In the future days which we seek to make secure, we look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms.

The first is freedom of speech and expression - everywhere in the world.

The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way – everywhere  in the world.

The third is freedom from want – which, translated into world terms, means economic understanding which will secure to every nation a healthy peace time life for its inhabitants – everywhere in the world.

The fourth is freedom from fear – which translated into world terms, means a world-wide reduction of armaments to such a point and in such a thorough fashion than no nation will be in a position to commit an act of physical aggression against any neighbour – anywhere in the world.

And in 1946 in another 'landmark' speech made by Sir Churchill at the University of Zurich, that I have posted about previously - The Council of Europe said:

...Yet all the while there is a remedy which, if it were generally and spontaneously adopted by the great majority of people in many lands, would as if by a miracle transform the whole scene, and would in a few years make all Europe, or the greater part of it, as free and as happy as Switzerland is to-day. What is this sovereign remedy? It is to re-create the European Family, or as much of it as we can, and to provide it with a structure under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom. We must build a kind of United States of Europe....

I am going to say something that will astonish you. The first step in the recreation of the European Family must be a partnership between France and Germany. In this way only can France recover the moral and cultural leadership of Europe. There can be no revival of Europe without a spiritually great France and a spiritually great Germany. The structure of the United States of Europe, if well and truly built, will be such as to make the material strength of a single state less important. Small nations will count as much as large ones and gain their honour by their contribution to the common cause. The ancient states and principalities of Germany, freely joined together for mutual convenience in a federal system, might take their individual places among the United States of Europe. I shall not try to make a detailed programme for hundreds of millions of people who want to be happy and free, prosperous and safe, who wish to enjoy the four freedoms of which the great President Roosevelt spoke, and live in accordance with the principles embodied in the Atlantic Charter...

And in 1949 he said:

Britain is an integral part of Europe, and we mean to play our part in the revival of her prosperity and greatness. But Britain cannot be thought of as a single state in isolation. She is the founder and centre of a world wide Empire and Commonwealth. We shall never do anything to weaken the ties of blood, of sentiment and tradition and common interests which unite us with other members of the British family of nations.

But nobody is asking us to make such a desertion. For Britain to enter a European Union from which the Empire and Commonwealth would be excluded would not only be impossible but would, in the eyes of Europe, enormously reduce the value of our participation. The Strasbourg recommendations [that is the first session of the Council of Europe] urged the creation of an economic system which will embrace not only the European States, but all those other States and territories elsewhere which are associated with them. (Source: Churchill by Roy Jenkins)

In 1957 the European Economic Community was formed, which the UK joined much later in 1974. The Treaty of Rome says in Articles 1 to 3:

ARTICLE 1

By this Treaty, the HIGH CONTRACTING PARTIES establish among themselves a EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY.

ARTICLE 2

The Community shall have as its task, by establishing a common market and progressively approximating the economic policies of Member States, to promote throughout the Community a harmonious development of economic activities, a continuous and balanced expansion, an increase in stability, an accelerated raising of the standard of living and closer relations between the States belonging to it.

ARTICLE 3

For the purposes set out in Article 2, the activities of the Community shall include, as provided in this Treaty and in accordance with the timetable set out therein

(a) the elimination, as between Member States, of customs duties and of quantitative restrictions on the import and export of goods, and of all other measures having equivalent effect;

(b) the establishment of a common customs tariff and of a common commercial policy towards third countries;

(c) the abolition, as between Member States, of obstacles to freedom of movement for persons, services and capital;

(d) the adoption of a common policy in the sphere of agriculture;

(e) the adoption of a common policy in the sphere of transport;

(f) the institution of a system ensuring that competition in the common market is not distorted;

(g) the application of procedures by which the economic policies of Member States can he co-ordinated and disequilibria in their balances of payments remedied;

(h) the approximation of the laws of Member States to the extent required for the proper functioning of the common market;

(i) the creation of a European Social Fund in order to improve employment opportunities for workers and to contribute to the raising of their standard of living;

(j) the establishment of a European Investment Bank to facilitate the economic expansion of the Community by opening up fresh resources;

(k) the association of the overseas countries and territories in order to increase trade and to promote jointly economic and social development.

You see the above,  I hope, sort of throws a light on this idea that somehow we where tricked into or were lied about the European Union. As you can see what is sometimes conviently forgotten is that many things that people object to, such as movement of people goes hand in hand with an economic union, that for instance the free movement of people came about because of economic union, read Articles 48 to 51.

And let's be clear the economic union did concern itself with social issues see Articles 117 to 122.

Put simply our prosperity and peace depends on common policies with Europe, and we would be worse off outside it, and Europe would be worse off without the UK as part of it.

In a previous post I pointed out why we cant do a Norway... Should the UK leave the EU and do a Norway?

And as for Switzerland this is what the CIA Factbook has to say:

"The Swiss have brought their economic practices largely into conformity with the EU's, to enhance their international competitiveness, but some trade protectionism remains, particularly for its small agricultural sector. The fate of the Swiss economy is tightly linked to that of its neighbors in the euro zone, which purchases half of all Swiss exports."

As for referendums which seems the to be in thing these days, aren't elections where you gain a fresh mandate? - this is what a Commission of the Conduct of Referendums had to say in a report in 1996:

....only 25 years ago referendums were regard as unconstitutional; they had no place in the political process....

The principal message of [their] report was:

"..referendums cannot provide a panacea for major political problems; but they can significantly assist governments before controversial legislation is introduced, and they can give greater legitimacy to new policies after legislation had been enacted..."

And in their lies the horn of dilemma for David Cameron, he knows that the UK should remain an essential part of Europe - but he also knows that his party is divided on the matter. Labour on the other hand should remain firm and say no to a referendum and seek a fresh mandate at the next election, by pledging to remain part of the European Union and grow and strengthen ties with it.

That is why UKIP and others want a referendum, because they know at the election ballot box they can't win.

I fear that in order to save the Conservative Party, they are willing to risk the unity and prosperity of the UK, and what of the consequence of this decision on next years Scottish referendum...you know one argument having being 'don't vote for independence cause that'll mean you'll be out of the EU...if now it has to be amended.... but you needn't worry we might be all out of the EU after 2017.

As the New York Times said recently:

"Domestic politics have regularly trumped broader European concerns throughout the six-decade-long history of the union and its predecessor organizations, to the dismay of those who want to see Europe live up to a commitment in the 1957 Treaty of Rome for an “ever closer union.”

But Mr. Cameron’s pledge to hold a referendum on European Union membership threatens to elevate national political calculations over common interests to an extent that has alarmed even countries that often share British concerns."

UKIP and jam jars.

I see UKIP are at it again, making a mountain out of  a molehill.

The Daily Post today has a letter from John Buffon and MEP for Wales claiming that the EU has banned "the reuse of containers such as jam jars" he explains further the EU rule is "to prevent 'dangerous' chemicals leaching out of pre used containers". Anyone who breaches the rules could be fined £5000 or even go to jail he writes.

What a load of utter crap!!!!!

An article in the Northern Echo says "Church organisations and the Women’s Institute are warning members that selling produce in re-used bottles for public events breaches a European rule preventing containers being re-used unless designed for that purpose."

The Northern Echo further explains "A spokesman for the Food Standards Agency (FSA) said local authority environmental health officers were allowed to use their discretion in enforcing the rule.

 He said: “The EU rules state that anyone selling commercially must use a container that is designed for that, so, technically, the rule means people selling products cannot reuse a container that was not designed for re-use."

 I suppose if you were looking for the ideal container designed for re-use that does not leach out dangerous chemicals I suppose the ideal candidate would be a jam jar. After all we use glass 'cause it doesn't leach out dangerous chemicals.

Mr Buffon talks of common sense but sadly; in the world as it is today, there are many out there who would for profit, sell you food in reused containers knowing that it could through leaching damage your health.

As ever UKIP are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill, there are very good reasons behind the legislation, but that wont stop UKIP  going for the headlines......have you heard EU have banned reuse of jam jars, gosh...what will cook do now....what a bunch of  right wing idiots and no mistake.

NHS in Wales - how can we improve the service?

Let's be clear, the NHS in Wales needs to be reformed, it's costing too much money and we cant afford it. This means having to take some difficult decisions like moving some specialist care to centers of excellence, and either reducing level of care at general hospitals or closing them altogether. One reason for this is the shortage of trained nurses and doctors. And this is not a problem for Wales alone, a similar path is been followed in London see: BBC News Four north-west London A&E departments face closure.

We all need to ask this fundamental question: How do we; having regard to the need to make substantial savings in the NHS budget, provide a modern service that meets the expectations of the public and those of the founding fathers, at a time when the call on the NHS is growing annually?

This should be the benchmark - will my actions make the NHS better, otherwise what's the point?

As Prof Longley says We now desperately need a serious public debate about these issues. Most of the NHS in Wales provides a good and robust service; but key bits are giving serious cause for concern. Choices are now required on what to do about this. To sit on our hands and ignore the evidence is to put at risk the quality of care for future patients.

Which brings me to 'Opposition unites behind no confidence motion in Lesley Griffiths' (BBC News)

As you may know a report published in May by Prof Longley said changes are needed to the NHS in Wales. Welsh Government ministers used this independent report as justification for changes they are implementing in NHS provision across Wales.

Even I could have told them that, the days of general hospitals are over, we can't afford them and they don't provide good quality for money. Of course closing local hospitals is never going to be an easy task, most politicians think that supporting closure of their local hospital would be political suicide.

As the old adage says 'Don't like the message shot the messenger' which is what it seems the opposition parties are doing, with their rather silly motion of no confidence, because they say the report by Prof  Longley wasn't as independent as claimed.

But what will it achieve, say if Leslie Griffiths AM, Health Minister did resign, what then?

To return to my benchmark question, would this make the NHS better? - the difficult question of the need to reform the NHS would still be there, other than some cheap political point scoring nothing would have been achieved.

I suppose there will be a debate on the motion of no confidence, of which there is little chance of it being passed. Are the opposition parties really telling me that instead of the Welsh Assembly debating important issues that affect us all, they want to waste time so they can score some cheap political points. Do they really think the welsh public are that stupid?

And what is Plaid Cymru doing, come on Leanne Woods get a grip!! - remember being seen to side with the Welsh Conservatives will do you, nor your party any favours (just ask the previous leader Ieuan Wyn Jones).

As for the Welsh Conservatives whom according to latest opinion polls are less popular than UKIP, are these the first salvos in Shadow Health Minister, Darren Millar AM bid to become the next Welsh Conservatives leader? - after all, even though I might disagree with what he says, he does seem to be the most effective Conservative AM of recent times.