A merry Christmas to you all.....

Wow what a year it has been, not many pundits predicted that did they......

Who would have known we'd be on our way out of Europe and the 45th POTUS would be a certain Donald Trump, not many of us.

So let's start with the referendum which decided we leave the European Union. Now I'm not going to go over the arguments for or against that decision, it's been made, the public decided..so we move on.

Of course lets us not forget the real reason David Cameron called the referendum and passed an act of parliament to bring this about - it was not about you or me or Sid down the street, but all about the Tory party and keeping the waring factions within together.

So what do we now know - well it seems no one expected the result, this is clear from the fact no one had a plan, furthermore we decided a complex question;  which as the current Prime Minister said was more than a binary choice, on a question that was a binary choice. Go figure!

Moving forward, we now face what...a hard brexit or a soft brexit, or May's Red White and Blue Brexit (she alone decides that apparently, we must trust her).

Put simply...Low growth a gig economy, over reliance on the service sector and a expanding trade deficit does not make for a sustainable future.

We could suppose be like Norway, and yes we could, if it was a second best option, but good old Margaret Thatcher (and subsequent politicians) pissed that all away when she sold our gas and oil revenues down shit creek rather than what Norway did and invest it in the future.  

Lets be honest we don't know what the brexit future holds, nothing like this has happened before, the economist have no model to refer to, we can only hope for the better. One thing for sure we need to keep access to the single market, we need to be Norway lite, not an ideal situation,  but better that the other nuclear option a hard brexit.....

What does that mean, it means negotiating to have our seat at the WTO back, you know that democratic trade body with neoliberal globlisation at its heart....you remember the last time you voted for the WTO don't you?

It means imports to our country would be more expensive, as well as our exports, we would see less tax from the city as they move some of their operations abroad, we would have less corporation tax as we try and entice inward investment.

And what would those brexiters say when we still need the same level of immigrants to balance an every growing older population to keep our economy running? .... Don't blame the majority of migrants for the minority that are being exploited, blame those who are exploiting them!

The world is growing closer, lets not build false walls and leave ourselves behind.


                      

What a refreshing change.....

I think we are all fed up of negative stories about immigrants - that they are all feckless layabouts here to scrounge welfare, and how it's the fault of UK being a member of the European Union. That things would be  different if weren't in the EU, you know a bit like Norway. 

I posted about the Norway question before: Should the UK leave the EU and do a Norway?

So it was refreshing to read in The Norway Post "[Norway's] Minister of Labour Anniken Huitfeldt [say she] is pleased with the increased number of immigrant workers who choose to come to Norway. She says the country is in need of even more workers, especially engineers and people from the health sector.

The Minister thinks our growing economy combined with good salaries and working conditions are part of the reason why more workers choose to come here. Huitfeldt also says that she is pleased with the shorter processing times now offered by the UDI, and the close contact they have with the labour market."

Should the UK leave the EU and do a Norway?

Norwegian oil field

There is a growing call for a referendum on whether the UK remains an integral part of the European Union, or leave but remain part of the European Economic Area (the YES/NO question). In a recent article in The Telegraph Harriet Alexander reported that Last week, writing in The Sunday Telegraph, David Cameron raised the possibility of a referendum on Britain's membership. And Norway is often cited as a perfect example of how to leave the EU, yet still thrive.

Also "People worry that if Britain left we would lose access to the Single Market and not be able to travel freely," said Robert Oulds, director of the Bruges Group think tank. “But that is not the case. Britain can cancel its membership of the EU and retain the trade benefits, following Norway’s example. The only thing we will lose is the bureaucracy and expense."

But is Norway a perfect example for the UK to follow? - for a start take it's population of around 4.7 million which is more akin to the population of  Scotland.

The following is from the CIA World Factbook (my emphasis):

The Norwegian economy is a prosperous mixed economy, with a vibrant private sector, a large state sector and an extensive social safety net. The government controls key areas, such as the vital petroleum sector, through extensive regulation and large-scale state-majority-owned enterprises. The country is richly endowed with natural resources - petroleum, hydropower, fish, forests, and minerals - and is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which accounts for the largest portion of export revenue and about 20% of government revenue. Norway is the world's second-largest gas exporter; and seventh largest oil exporter, making one of its largest offshore oil finds in 2011. Norway opted to stay out of the EU during a referendum in November 1994; nonetheless, as a member of the European Economic Area, it contributes sizably to the EU budget. In anticipation of eventual declines in oil and gas production, Norway saves state revenue from the petroleum sector in the world's second largest sovereign wealth fund, valued at over $500 billion in 2011 and uses the fund's return to help finance public expenses. After solid GDP growth in 2004-07, the economy slowed in 2008, and contracted in 2009, before returning to positive growth in 2010-11, however, the government budget is set to remain in surplus.

It has around 5.7 billion gallons of oil in proven reserves compared to UK of around 2.9 billion. And it has has around 2 trillion cubic meters of gas in proven reserves, compared to 256 billion in the UK.

Norway has prospered well, by careful management of its natural resources. Robert Oulds said above "The only thing we will lose is the bureaucracy and expense." but Norway still contributes sizably to the EU budget and the government controls key areas, such as the vital petroleum sector, through extensive regulation and large-scale state-majority-owned enterprises.

Possibly not what the neoliberals and free-marketers of the right had in mind exactly.

No I don't think the UK could use Norway as an example to follow, although it could be a model for Scotland? - after all Scotland with a population of around 5 million and some oil left, with it's close links to Norway through the oil industry, are already practically neighbours.

Winter and snow

We in the UK, love to talk about the weather, especially when it snows and brings the whole country to a complete shut down. Or so you would believe, if you watched the rolling news, with the annual calls for inquires and better preparation for next time.

This year the snow arrived early, it’s not officially winter yet, winter solstice is 21 December 2010. On that day the sun is at one of the two points in its path around the sky where it is as far from the celestial equator it ever can be. It normally snows in this country February and March.

Another annual popular question is - Why when it snows does the Scandinavian countries seem to cope so well?

Well, they are further away from the equator than most of the UK for a start, with the exception of parts of Scotland, and therefore get shorter days in winter. They also do not benefit the same as we do from the Gulf Stream, which warms the UK in winter. This means for them more snow, more often making the additional expenditure to cope justified. Then there are the strict driving laws during winter.

In Norway “there must be a minimum of 1.6 millimetre tread on summer tyres and a minimum of 3 millimetres on winter tyres. Vehicles must not be used unless they have sufficient road grip for the road surface.

During the winter, you must drive with winter tyres with or without studs. All-year tyres can also be used. Use of studded tyres is allowed from 1 November - 15 April. In Nordland, Troms and Finnmark studded tyres are allowed during the period 15 October - 1 May. Studded tyres may also be used outside these periods if the weather and road surface conditions make it necessary.

If studded tyres are fitted to a car weighing under 3.5 tonnes, they must be fitted to all four wheels. Vehicles with a permitted total weight of 3.5 tonnes or more, must carry snow chains if ice or snow is expected on the road. These snow chains must fit the vehicle's wheels.”

But don’t forget that sometimes even they cannot cope, as happened in Oslo last winter:

“Complaints have poured in over lack of snow plowing"

February 5, 2010

"City officials in Oslo have been as dissatisfied with snow clearing this winter as local residents, and have issued fines amounting to several hundred thousand kroner to the three firms responsible for plowing streets and sidewalks.

“They just haven’t done a very good job,” Arne Sørlie of the city transport department told Norwegian Broadcasting (NRK). Slippery streets last week prompted numerous vehicle collisions, while pedestrians were falling with alarming regularity.

The firms involved blame “two demanding snowfalls,” claiming they hadn’t finished clearing up the first dump before the second one hit. That was weeks ago, though, and many sidewalks still haven’t been cleared.

Consistently sub-freezing temperatures have meant they didn’t get any help from melting. One of the firms, Oslo Vei, admitted that “we can be better, like all others,” and promised to “check our routines” and “see what can be done differently.”

see http://www.newsinenglish.no/2010/02/05/complaints-have-poured-in-over-lack-of-snow-plowing/