How we elect Welsh Assembly members

On Monday the Welsh Office published their 'Green Paper on future electoral arrangements for the National Assembly for Wales'.

In the first place let's deal with what I think are the no controversial aspects of the Green Paper:

The proposal to increase the fixed term of the Assembly from 4 to 5 years, dual candidacy, Multiple mandates (or the 'Alun Cairns Question') to be prohibited.

Which leaves the question of how we elect Assembly Members?

This is something I did post about last year see How we elect assembly members.

In the green paper there are two options: keep the status quo of 40:20 or change the balance to 30:30.

In the first place I'm not sure that it's totally necessary for the wards of assembly members to mirror those of parliament. But if we say that it may be desirable, my preference would be 2 member STV based on the Westminster constituencies, as I believe it would be better to vote for named individuals rather than the use of regional lists where you vote for a party and where an AM is expected to represent a very large area.

Other options where also looked at by the Electoral Reform Society in 2010 in a publication called ‘Reduce and Equalise’ and the Governance of Wales

How we elect Assembly Members.

In Westminster Plaid Cymru Members of Parliament, according to BlogMenai in a post today, want to change the way Assembly Members are elected to the Welsh Assembly. They want a constituency list of 30, and a regional list of 30, therefore 6 AMs being elected for each region instead of the current 4.

This is based on the Conservative led Coalition Government plans to reduce the number of Welsh MP to 30 (or 29 depending on how you round up) instead of the current 40.

As the Electoral Reform Society pointed out in 2010 should this change become reality then

“As the law stands, a reduction in the number of Welsh constituencies and MPs in Westminster would lead to the reduction in the number of Assembly Members in Cardiff Bay. This is particularly so if this would also involve resolving Wales’s current over-representation at Westminster, which would bring the number of constituencies down to 30. This would mean an Assembly of 45 members.”

And

“Such a reduction would threaten the ability of the Assembly to govern effectively.”

The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 has amended this direct link since then.

Therefore if the changes to the Westminster constituencies are brought about then a debate on how we elect Assembly Members will be needed. The discussion paper by the Electoral Reform Society - ‘Reduce and Equalise’ and the Governance of Wales gives a detailed explanation as to the options.

I finish with a simple look as to whether there is a bias towards Labour with the current election system. The chart below is for constituency votes, the back columns representing the actual result.


The columns at the front are arrived at by adding all the votes for each party from the 40 constituencies, dividing the all Wales total votes cast by 40, and then dividing total votes cast for each party by this figure.

Therefore based on a simple proportionality exercise the answer seems to be yes, but seeing how the 'Yes to AV' did so badly at the recent referendum in Wales, it will be a brave politician that suggest a major change to the election system.

Updated 17/05/2010- Text amended and note about Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 added.