Mr Sargeant - please don't forget the public.

In September,  Councillors of Ynys Môn Council may be given back the key to the executive chamber, and over a phased time period have power returned to them. You can read a transcript of Carl Sargeant, Minister for Local Government and Communities statement in  Paul Williams Druids Revenge blog.

Carl Sargeant, the Commissioners and the Audit Commission whilst not totally convinced that the problems of past "misbehavior, under-performance and petty squabbling" would not return, have concluded "there are no longer any serious risks."

I suspect though that the ratepayers of Ynys Môn will be far less optimistic as to the likelihood of good behavior continuing within the ranks of the islands Councillors.

And that in once sense is a problem with this process, is a feeling that nobody has really bothered to ask the ratepayers what they thought, what they wanted. Nor has anyone; it seems, asked how can we bring the ratepayers back on board and interested in the real issues that affect the island, and how through the democratic process can their concerns can be satisfactorily addressed.

Don't get me wrong in many ways a lot has been achieved since the Commissioners have been 'running the council' on behalf of Carl Sargeant. Procedures have been updated to improve the governance of the Council, and steps have been taken to ensure that the Council has in place a strong management team, which is something the Audit Commission has long identified as a weakness.

Then there is the decision of Carl Sargeant to change the island election boundaries for councillors to multi member wards, similar to what occurs in Scotland. I think it's a very good idea, and would urge Carl Sargeant, if he can to go further and adopt  Single Transferable Vote (STV) as a method of electing Councillors, again as they do in Scotland.

I would urge also the main political parties on the island to set aside their differences and work together on how they can encourage greater participation in the politics of the island. I seem to recall that there where moves made last year to this end, but have read little about it since.

I also read somewhere that there was a growing call within the Conservative Party to look at how candidates where selected, and whether the process could be widened so that a greater; shall we say, diversity of candidates be put forward, and not from a narrow pool of what may be portrayed as stereotypically candidates from any of the main political parties.

In terms of multi member wards one concern as expressed by Paul Williams is that it will make it harder for independent councillors to be elected, due to the size of the wards and lack of resources by independent candidates to canvass such wards. Can I make a suggestion that as part of the election process the Council could send out to all ratepayers a leaflet saying whom is standing in their ward, within which each candidate would be allowed; within limits, an opportunity to spell out why they should be elected as Councillor for that ward.

Which brings me neatly onto independent councillors, and a commonly asked question - Are independent councillors really Conservatives in disguise?

Interestingly the Political Studies Association in April also asked that question in respect of Councillors in England, and you can read their working draft by following this link - Independent Councillors.

Which sort of, in conclusion to the question -Are independent councillors really Conservatives in disguise? says  - No, but lots of them are.

Now there are many reasons why you would stand as a independent councillor - you may not have a great allegiance with any of the main political parties, or although you may support a political party you may have fallen out with the local party on a specific issue, or you may have been excluded from standing in the name of the local party for various reasons.

Of course one of the problems you have with independent councillors is in the most a lack of a manifesto, from which they can claim a mandate or on which the electorate can judge whether they have kept promises made.

There is also a lack of party discipline and or support, not that this means no good independent Councillors exist. But if you do have allegiances if not with the main political parties, maybe you should follow the lead of Llais Gwynedd, who formed their own party rather than some confusing case of being independent but yet being part of a group of Councillors with similar views and not therefore strictly speaking independent at all.

As to whether following next years council elections the long term future of Ynys Môn Council is secure may be academic, as I have said before there are far too many Council in Wales, and when the time is right a merger with Gwynedd and possibly Conwy is definitely on the political horizon. 

The People's Budget

Last year we on the island with thanks to Paul Williams (aka The Druid) had the People's Manifesto. This year my attention had been drawn by a commentator to the People's Budget.

They say:

Billions of pounds of our money is being used by public bodies without any involvement of local people. The People’s Budget is a campaign to help your community group understand how to persuade your local council, health organisation, police force or housing provider to give you a significant say in how budgets should be spent.

Seems a good idea to me.

But why don't you make your own mind up by visiting the website http://www.thepeoplesbudget.org.uk/

Councils consult on windfarms in 'Gwynedd'

Wind farms especially the new generation of wind turbines; which are much larger than those we currently have on Ynys Môn, have of late become a contentious issue. The pressure group Anglesey against wind turbines "exist to oppose any further erection of commercial on shore wind turbines on the grounds that they are unsightly, damaging to our fragile economy, uneconomic, noisy and damaging to our wildlife."

Large non-commercial wind turbines being OK I assume?

I myself have previously stated the in my humble opinion wind farms are the short term answer to our electricity needs, as part of a sustainable national grid.  However having said that I think 'Anglesey against wind turbines' are doing a good job in that wind turbines "has recently become a hotly debated topic".

As Paul Williams (aka The Druid) points out, even the Council has taken notice. Last week Anglesey and Gwynedd Joint Planning Policy Unit published a draft Supplementary Planning Guidance document which you can download from Ynys Môn Council website.

The consultation period runs till Friday 10th February 2012.

Update: With thanks to Mairede Thomas (see below comments) who makes reference to the following documents:

Electricity Market Reform (EMR) White Paper 2011 (July 2011)

and

Written ministerial statement by Chris Huhne on Electricity Market Reform: technical update. (December 2011)

or Press release by Chris Huhne, Energy and Climate Change Secretary.

Wales too small - what about Uruguay?

Yesterday I said that in my humble opinion Elin Jones AM would be a very good leader of Plaid Cymru.

I mentioned the dreaded 'I' word independence, which we shouldn't be afraid to discuss. I said "I do not think independence for Wales would be right as things stand."

This morning I listened to a conversation on the Today program on Radio 4. They were talking about the football game tonight, between England and Wales, and the Radio 4 chap said something along the lines of “why hasn't Wales qualified for any major football tournament since 1958. Take Uruguay for example, whose population is also just above 3 million and the amount of times they have qualified, and they recently won the Copa America."

And that made me think. One argument put forward by many against independence for Wales is - its too small.

Now I know you cant really compare Wales and Uruguay, especially if you believe some who say that Wales is the poorest Country in Europe. Somehow I don't think Uruguay is the poorest South American Country.

The CIA World Factbook says in a short history of Uruguay:

Montevideo, founded by the Spanish in 1726 as a military stronghold, soon took advantage of its natural harbor to become an important commercial center. Claimed by Argentina but annexed by Brazil in 1821, Uruguay declared its independence four years later and secured its freedom in 1828 after a three-year struggle. The administrations of President Jose BATLLE in the early 20th century established widespread political, social, and economic reforms that established a statist tradition. A violent Marxist urban guerrilla movement named the Tupamaros, launched in the late 1960s, led Uruguay's president to cede control of the government to the military in 1973. By yearend, the rebels had been crushed, but the military continued to expand its hold over the government. Civilian rule was not restored until 1985. In 2004, the left-of-center Frente Amplio Coalition won national elections that effectively ended 170 years of political control previously held by the Colorado and Blanco parties. Uruguay's political and labor conditions are among the freest on the continent.

And in an overview of Uruguay's economy say:

Uruguay's economy is characterized by an export-oriented agricultural sector, a well-educated work force, and high levels of social spending. Following financial difficulties in the late 1990s and early 2000s, economic growth for Uruguay averaged 8% annually during the period 2004-08. The 2008-09 global financial crisis put a brake on Uruguay's vigorous growth, which decelerated to 2.9% in 2009. Nevertheless, the country managed to avoid a recession and keep positive growth rates, mainly through higher public expenditure and investment, and GDP growth exceeded 8% in 2010.

Just in case you missed it, a GDP growth of 8% in 2010, making them 14th in the list of country comparisons, compared with the UK GDP growth of the same year of 1.3% putting us in 163rd place on the list.

And the Country's main exports:

beef, soybeans, cellulose, rice, wheat, wood, dairy products; wool

Again I emphasize you cant really compare countries, as Paul Williams (aka The Druid) has pointed out on numerous occasions, but to me at least it disproves the argument that Wales is too small to be an independent Country in terms of population. Its really down to the question of whether we have the economy to sustain us, as an independent state.

I would also like to thank Rob Davies, 'The outspoken columnist who tells it how it is' of the Daily Post, for his support for independence - ok maybe not - but all you have to do is change a few words from his rant of today and you get from the section headed 'Old Boundaries' (were he argues to retain the 22 welsh Councils - which in reality don't follow old boundaries) the following:

"At [national] level, [..] government works best following ancient [..] boundaries to which many people still retain loyalty. Many of these are based on natural divisions such as rivers. Far more people will engage with [governments] if they represent the actual geographical terrain they call home."

I also recommend you read an article by Adam Price, which was published in the Huffington Post titled - 'Why Independence for Wales and Other Countries Makes Economic Sense' on 2 August 2011, by following this link: Adam Price - Huffington Post

Ieuan Wyn Jones AM and his core vote.

Paul Williams (aka The Druid) came a respectable second, with 7032 votes, in last weeks Welsh Assembly Elections; he nearly matched the number of votes received by Peter Rogers (7197) when standing as the official Conservative candidate in 2003. And it was similar to the number of votes Albert Owen received (7181) when he stood as the Labour candidate in 1999.

Ieuan Wyn Jones vote was down slightly, 9969 as compared to 10653 in 2007.

By the end of his next term in the Welsh Assembly in 2016; 5 years this time instead of the usual 4 to avoid conflict with the General Election the year before, Ieuan Wyn Jones will have been representing Anglesey as an MP or AM for 29 years, overtaking Cledwyn Hughes who represented the island for 28 distinguished years.

Elections where IWJ has been a candidate on Anglesey

The only person to have defeated Ieuan Wyn Jones was the Conservative Keith Best back in 1983, when Ieuan Wyn Jones first stood. The nearest anybody has come to defeating him since was in 1992 when his majority was cut to 1106 by Gwynn Price Roberts standing for the Conservatives.

In essence Paul Williams did very well considering Ieuan Wyn Jones has a core vote of around 9000 plus, the current unpopularity of austerity cuts by the Conservative led Coalition Government, and the island history long support of ‘liberal’ parties. In fact other than for Keith Best (1979-1987) you have to go back to 1722-1725 to find the previous ‘Tory’ to have held the seat - The Viscount Bulkeley.

Finally I think it’s worth mentioning the good result achieved by Joe Lock, the Labour candidate, who increased their vote to 6307. The least said about the Liberal Democrats the better.

The real reason Octel Amlwch closed

In his latest missive Paul Williams aka 'The Druid' thinks it beneficial to mention Octel and its closure in 2005 with a loss of 105 jobs.

As he says “Well known companies which survived the recession of the 1980s and 90s, which have provided stable, well paid work for generations of Islanders have in recent years closed in rapid succession”.

Octel is first on his list, following the above statement see: Seven days to go:

Octel produced ‘bromide’ an additive for leaded petrol, to stop ‘knocking’, and after the introduction of Lead Replacement Petrol (LRP) the need for bromide was significantly reduced.

Therefore the real reason Octel Amlwch closed was the complete collapse in the price of bromide which made production at Amlwch uneconomical.

In other words, the world moved on, with what is claimed safer fuels being produced. None of this had anything to do with the Welsh Assembly - therefore why Paul Williams is keen to mention this company is really lost on us?

Welsh Assembly Elections - The candidates for Ynys Môn

Ieuan Wyn Jones, Plaid Cymru
Paul Williams, Conservatives
Joe Lock, Labour
Rhys Taylor, Liberal Democrats.

The interesting question this time is what will happen to Peter Rogers votes of the 2007 Welsh Assembly Election.

Many Anglesey Conservatives believe that had Peter Rogers not stood in 2007 that their candidate would have been much closer to Ieuan Wyn Jones.

A belief recently repeated by the Paul Williams, the welsh speaking, Anglesey born Conservative candidate. The argument goes if you add the 6,261 votes for Peter Rogers with the 3,480 for the then Conservative candidate and 912 for UKIP you’d get 10,574 votes.

I suspect though that Peter Rogers may have had cross party appeal, and some tactical voting by Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters.

An alternative explanation therefore for the votes Peter Rogers gained could have been a combination of votes (difference between 2007 and 2003), the - 1,343 Labour votes, 3,717 Conservative votes (some of which may have gone to UKIP), 1,147 Liberal Democrats. In total 6207.

Maybe we need to consider the 2003 results - PC 37%, L 24%, C 29% and a need for a 8% swing for the Conservatives to gain the seat, which is only 2,017 votes.

And then what will happen to the Liberal Democrats votes?

All in all rather to close to call - although if Plaid Cymru can motivate their supporters to vote, my thoughts are a Plaid Cymru hold with a reduced majority, with Paul Williams a close second.

Note: We should remember that in 1999 Ieuan Wyn Jones had 53% of the vote, and in 2007 he had 40% of the vote, which was 18% higher than the ITV YouGov Poll of the time.