Thursday, 29 December 2011

The weather and the jet stream.

Figure 1

The winter weather to date has been rather warm, if wet and windy. A major reason behind this has been the jet stream, which for most of December has been above us, bringing warmer air in from the Atlantic. A good explanation as to how the jet stream affects UK weather can be found in the - tutorial

You can see a predicted model of the jets stream from the Global Forecasting System at Weatheronline.

Figure 1 above shows the jet stream as predicted for new years eve at 18:00 hours GMT.  As you can see the jet stream is moving in a general South to North direction as it passes the UK, which will bring warmer weather as can be seen in figure 2 below:

Figure 2

Therefore for Ynys Môn weather on new years eve is likely to cloudy but mostly dry with a mild temperature (up to 11 Celsius) but may feel colder in a brisk wind (25-30 mph). An approaching cold front from Ireland may bring rain sometime after 9 pm,  with  light rain showers for most of new years day.

Base data from Weatheronline and Met Office for Surface Pressure Charts


Anonymous said...

Hello, any news on the volcano that is due to erupt in Iceland? it was due to erupt last month and the consequences were as worse asthey come.

Rhys Williams said...

It seems nobody knows for certain when the Katla volcano will erupt or how bad it will be.


The Red Flag said...

The thing you can guarentee about Iceland's volcanoes is that they will erupt. It isn't unusual, it isn't unnatural and it isn't unexpected nor a surprise.

Some are due, some are overdue, some aren't due for a while. Silly people think 1,000 years is a long time. When you accept that in the case of volcanoes 1000 years is little more than an irrelevance then you will accept that they will pop when they feel like it. The rest depends on the time of year and several other factors such as the presence of ice as to whether they will affect us.

Katya, if it blows at the right time of year etc could theoretically cause catastrophic crop failures all over western europe for two years. (crop failures is far far more important than no flights)