Balance of Payments - Trade in Goods

Last year I said that export markets are key to a long term recovery.

One essential element of any stable economy is a strong manufacturing base. It's just as important to tackle this deficit, as it is to tackle the central government financial deficit.

There has been a small recovery last year, but as you can see from the chart below there is a long way to go.

Balance of payments - trade in goods UK (figures in millions and UK pound)

Update:

Balance of trade for the UK divided into categories, between 1970 and 2009.

Data from: ONS

GVA by Industries - Growth areas in the UK

The following is a simple exercise of comparing GVA levels of 2008 and 1995.

In England of the 93 regions as defined by the ONS the industries that grew the most are:

56 Business services and finance
28 Public administration, education, health and other services
09 Distribution, transport and communication

During the same period there was a decline in production in 30 of the regions.

In Wales of the 12 regions the industries that grew the most are:

7 Public administration, education, health and other services
3 Business services and finance
2 Distribution, transport and communication

During the same period there was a decline in production in 6 of the regions

In Scotland of the 23 regions the industries that grew the most are:

11 Public administration, education, health and other services.
07 Business services and finance
03 Construction
02 Distribution, transport and communication

During the same period there was a decline in production in 8 of the regions

In Northern Ireland of the 5 regions the industries that grew the most are:

2 Public administration, education, health and other services.
2 Distribution, transport and communication.
1 Business services and finance

Data from ONS - 3:8 GVA1,2 by 6 industries (constrained to headline NUTS2) at current basic prices. And as always my usual disclaimer about comparing regions using GVA.

GVA - Production and Business services and finance.

And for now to finish my journey through charts, the below is GVA by Production (constrained to headline NUTS2) at current basic prices for all regions in Wales.

And the next chart being for Business services and finance.

Data from ONS - 3:8 GVA1,2 by 6 industries (constrained to headline NUTS2) at current basic prices. And as always my usual disclaimer about comparing regions using GVA.

GVA - Agriculture, forestry and fishing

When looking at the charts for all 6 industries (see below post), it became apparent that one industry had seen a fall in its GVA over the years, being Agriculture, forestry and fishing across the majority of the UK.

When you look in detail at the figures you realise that following 2003/2004 there has been a dramatic drop in earnings, from which the 'industry' has never recovered fully from.

The first chart shows GVA for agriculture, forestry and fishing(constrained to headline NUTS2) at current basic prices for all regions in England.

The next chart is for all regions in Wales and again you can see there has been a steady decrease for sometime and as England the worse being after 2003/2004. However unlike England there has only been a small recovery since .

The final chart is for Scotland which had a less dramatic decline in the GVA for agriculture, forestry and fishing. The Scottish Government website says:

"In 2004, net farm incomes were lower across most sectors due to a combination of lower output prices and higher input costs. In particular cereal and potato prices for the 2004 harvest were lower than the previous year, whilst input costs such as fuel, fertilisers and agrochemicals increased. Dairy farmers saw a small increase in net farm income despite increased costs, primarily due to receipt of the dairy premium."

Data from ONS - 3:8 GVA1,2 by 6 industries (constrained to headline NUTS2) at current basic prices. And as always my usual disclaimer about comparing regions using GVA.

GVA by 6 industries.

With the May elections for the Welsh Assembly not that far off I though I’d look at how Wales is doing in comparison with the rest of the UK. I start with GVA by industries the first chart being for Anglesey

Then we can compare it with Gwynedd, which in terms of growth is very similar to Anglesey aside for the growth in public administration, education, health and other services

Then if we look at Swansea we can see they have done well in both public administration, education, health and other services and business services and finance

Cheshire in comparison does quite well in many sectors with business services and finance showing the greatest growth

And finally Edinburgh, who as Cheshire have seen the greatest growth in Business services and finance.

Data from ONS and based on 3:8 GVA1,2 by 6 industries (constrained to headline NUTS2) at current basic prices. I add my usual disclaimer about the need when comparing regions based on GVA to exercise caution.

Voting rights for prisoners.

You can judge the values of a country by the way it treats its prisoners.

You need to consider why we put people in jail in the first place. For those who have committed heinous crime such as murder, we put them in prison because not doing so would put the public at risk.

And we only release them when they have atoned for their crimes. There are some murders so horrendous, that the person who committed them may never be released.

For others it is a sanction that courts impose. Sadly for some it is seen as badge of honour, and more depressingly for some it is a safety net when life outside in the real world becomes to real.

So where does voting rights for prisoners fit into all of this?

The European Court has ruled that the blanket ban on denying all prisoners the right to a vote does not comply with the requirements of the Human Rights Act. They have said though that Parliament is the place to decide whom is denied the vote if they are sent to prison.

'Votes for prisoners' - the last thing on the mind of the criminal when doing the crime, the last thing a farther would mention when trying to talk his son out of crime “Don’t do it son, you do realise you’ll loose your voting rights”.

For politicians of all political parties though its one of those difficult questions. After all they have been asked to give voting rights to people whom because they don’t have voting rights may not have elected them in the first place, and all parties want to be seen as being tough on the causes of crime.

A good thing then that we have the common sense voice of the Kenneth Clarke MP; Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice; and I agree with him we cant refuse to comply with a judgement passed down from a Court set up by a convention, this country was crucial in its creation in the first place.

In essence this is all about citizenship, and the basic rights that should be given to a citizen of a country...

...And of the most basic human rights of a citizen should be the right to a vote.

Now sometimes a person may carry out such a heinous crime that they will forfeit their rights, the right to vote being one of them.

It makes sense that Parliament decides what we define as heinous crimes, but quite clearly a blanket ban is wrong.

Sadly it seems the majority of MP’s have chosen the easy route on this one, but they need to realise that the decisions they take are far more important than headlines in the red tops.

Because for one thing we can’t lecture the world on human rights, if we ourselves have been found guilty of denying some prisoners the very basic human rights they should be entitled to.

Keep the military involved in SAR-H

U.S Coast Guard in Action

Before Albert Owen MP tries to claim the credit for the suspension of the proposed PFI SAR-H contract, here are some interesting facts:

The current debate about SAR-H capabilities began as far back as 2000.

Understandably the priority for the Ministry of Defence (MOD) is to provide more than enough military helicopters to support our troops.

It was the previous Labour Government that began to privatise the SAR-H with; in the long-term, the expensive PFI model.

Concerns where raised back in 2008 about likely conflict of interests in the bidding process and that of commercial confidentiality. One consortium withdrew from the process because of the concerns raised.

On coming into power the Coalition Government initially delayed the process to carry out a review, as there were concerns about the final cost of the PFI scheme. However they were minded to award the contract as the cost of cancelling would have been prohibitively expensive.

In essence it shows once again that there is a serious problem with procurement at the MOD

The important thing for me is that the RAF and Navy are still involved in SAR, and my simple question is why the need to privatise it all - if we cant afford to buy the helicopters outright why not just lease the helicopters we want?

Read More
BBC News- oh too late Albert Owen MP tries to claim credit

Private SAR consortium fails to take off.

In December 2010, Phil Hammond the Transport Secretary suspended the tender process of the Search and Rescue service, when he was informed of possible issues with the bid of the preferred consortium.

It appears there may have been some dodgy goings on during the tender process, and this is now the subject of a Military Police investigation. This has spooked Royal Bank of Scotland and they have withdrawn from the consortium.

The Soteria consortium’s bid may therefore be fatally flawed and although no final decision has been made, the whole process will either have to be gone through again or even cancelled completely.

As I have blogged before the Soteria consortium where to use S92 Sikorsky Helicopters, whilst the other bidder AirKnight had proposed to use a fleet of Eurocopters, which some experts say are better.

The News of the World today meanwhile reported that David Cameron, the Prime Minister had ordered a complete review of the process after having been lobbied by Prince William.

One thing for sure the days of us seeing Sea King helicopters above us are far from over.

Post of the past
I agree with Prince William
Dark days ahead for RAF Valley
What is the true cost of sea and air rescue.

Learn more: Eurocopter EC225