Jobs - a look behind the headlines

Today saw the publication of the latest employment figures from ONS: Labour Market Statistics, December 2012.

BBC News headlines where - UK unemployment falls by 82,000, says ONS

However let us look behind the headlines. If we start with the quarterly growth in the total of people estimated to be employed in the UK:

You will notice that in the last quarter Aug-Oct 2012 the growth in the number of people employed grew as compared to the previous quarter, but less than the same quarter last year. Also in the last quarter there was 54 thousand more men in employment, whereas for women there was 13 thousand less in employment.

And if we look at the growth in workforce jobs in the last quarter:

The growth has come from new employee jobs. Previously there has been a concern about part time and self employed jobs, but this quarter the number fell:

And if we break down growth in employment to regions:

And unemployed by region:

You will notice a growth in unemployed in the growth engine of the UK which is London.

Finally the change in those classed as economical inactive since the previous quarter by region:

And of those economical inactive the change in the last quarter is:

To summaries,  whilst the economy is in the doldrums with low growth, jobs are still being created in the private sector, mostly it seems in Yorkshire and the Humber. 

Notes: Figures in charts in thousands, click on charts to enlarge. Data from ONS.

Employment in Wales and the bad news for women.

As reported by BBC Wales on Wednesday, the total number of people recorded as being unemployed  in  Wales went up by 2,000 (actually it was around 1,678) in the last quarter to 132,701.

Below is a summary of the headline figures for the last quarter (March-May):

As you can see the number of people employed in Wales fell by 9,055.

If we now look at the figures for men.

You will notice that the number of men unemployed in Wales went down by 4,772 over the last quarter. The number of men aged 16 -64 classed as economically inactive rose by 9,523.

And looking at figures for women:

The number of women unemployed went up by 6,450 over the last quarter.

To help us understand some of the above, ONS say:

Employment measures the number of people in paid work and differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job.

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work and are available to start work if a job is offered.

Economically inactive people are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks.

So what can we learn from the above? - I think it shows us that jobs are still being created in the welsh economy, although a growing problem is the number of people out for work for a long time. But what should concern us most, is that the above figures seem to confirm:

Spending cuts will disproportionately affect women: women are more likely to be the beneficiaries and users of public services; and employees in the public sector. (from The Guardian)

The chart below show the percentage of the population claiming job seekers allowance by unitary and local authority:

The chart below show the percentage of the population claiming job seekers allowance by region:

And the percentage change in claimant count by region over one year:

See also: Telegraph - Employment is rising but its not down to job creation.

To download the data for above: ONS Labour Market Statistics, July 2012, and as ever click on image to enlarge.

The state we are in, and of the economy.

Puzzled why David Cameron was keen to engage us in a big discussion about welfare benefits? - even though he said no changes would happen now, but may be included in the Conservative manifesto for the next general election, most likely (unless the Coalition falls apart) in 2015. Surely you would think they'd be working hard on a plan to generate growth, that we need, to drive the economy out of recession.

Or why George Osbourne rushed out on TuesdaIsy to announce a delay in the introduction of the proposed 3p rise in fuel tax.

Let's think, me thinks....a suggestion did it have anything to do with the dire state of the economy by any chance?

The Office for National Statitics today published details of the state of public sector finance for the month of May, 2012:

The main statistics show, that in May 2012, for measures excluding financial interventions:

• the public sector current budget was in deficit by £16.9 billion; this is a £2.7 billion higher deficit than in May 2011, when there was a deficit of £14.2 billion
• public sector net borrowing was £17.9 billion; this is £2.7 billion higher net borrowing than in May 2011, when net borrowing was £15.2 billion
• public sector net debt at the end of May 2012 was £1013.4 billion (65.0 per cent of GDP). This compares with £921.3 billion (61.3 per cent of GDP) at the end of May 2011
• The central government net cash requirement was £13.3 billion, a £2.5 billion higher net cash requirement than in May 2011, when there was a net cash requirement of £10.7 billion.

A report by Reuters - 'Public borrowing rises in May as income tax falls' by Fiona Shaikh and Matt Falloon says -  Tuesday's figures cast doubt over the government's ability to meet its deficit target of 92 billion pounds in the 2012/13 fiscal year - a total which includes the asset-transfer effect.

Even Mervyn King the Bank Governor can only see dark clouds on the horizon, "We are in the middle of a deep crisis, with enormous challenges to put our own banking system right and challenges for the rest of the world that they are struggling with," King told parliament's Treasury Committee. See Reuters - 'Gloomy BoE sees outlook darken'.

And finally for an alternative narrative on David Cameron recent attendance of the G20 summit read  'Cameron G20 missteps point to wider UK problems' an article by Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent of Reuters.

In a damaging rebuff to the Prime Minister former Clinton official Kupchan said to   Reuters -"London's relevance on the world stage seems to have declined since he became prime minister. Part of that might be inevitable given the circumstances ... but Cameron's statecraft is also leading to self-isolation."

Growth returns to UK, albeit slowly

The preliminary figures released today by the Office for National Statistics shows that in the first quarter of this year the economy; as measured by GDP, grew by 0.5%. This is good news as hopefully the country has avoided a double dip recession.


However, and as I have posted before (What now for Anglesey and the economy) the above chart shows the economy has an over reliance on 'Business Services and Finance', especially in England and Scotland.


The first quarter of 2011 has seen modest growth in most sectors, other than for construction which again has seen a decline, and 'Total Production' which although has a growth of 0.4%, was less than the 0.8% growth, achieved in the last quarter of 2010.

Of interest is the growth in the 'Distribution, Hotels and Restaurant' sector, which although small, may indicate many of us are having a staycation this year. It may also show the start of the Royal Wedding affect on our economy.

However whilst we should be somewhat optimistic about these figures, we should be cautious as the economy is still flat, the effects of the main public spending cuts are still to be felt, and then there is the slow down in the production of motor vehicles and consequences thereof, due to the natural disaster in Japan.